World Oil Outlook (2014)

OPEC has always recognized that its role as an intergovernmental organization of oil exporting countries is essential to the stability of the oil market and to the global economy. The Organization’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) is designed to share the OPEC Secretariat’s views on such matters. Published annually, it offers a comprehensive view of oil market prospects and the future of the world energy scene. As in previous editions, the WOO 2014 builds on the Organization’s in-depth research work, and provides analysis of the main issues and drivers that could impact the oil landscape in the medium- to long-term. The 2014 edition extends the timeframe in focus to 2040, and considers the outlook for supply and demand in both the upstream and downstream, and by region and oil sector. It also includes coverage of the energy scene for other fuels. A work of this kind necessarily includes a careful consideration of the various inter-related factors that have impacted the oil market over the past year, and those that are expected to affect it in the years ahead. However, given the complexity and uncertainties that are associated with the main drivers of the energy future, this publication provides alternative scenarios – in addition to a Reference Case Outlook – that consider different plausible economic growth paths and oil supply trajectories. Under all scenarios, the health of the global economy remains central. Although there have been both ups and downs this year, the global economy is generally seen continuing its gradual recovery. While the current forecast indicates fragility in the pace of global economic growth, this is expected to improve throughout the medium-term, moving from slightly above 3% in 2014 to reach 3.8% in 2018 and 2019 under the Reference Case. OECD countries are expected to continue recovering in the short- to mediumterm. The US economy is now growing at a healthy rate with low unemployment. But some other OECD economies still face various growth impediments – such as scal and debt dif culties – that keep their economies growing below their potential. Large emerging economies are also facing headwinds, meaning that the slowing growth trend seen in 2013 has continued through to this year. However, in the Reference Case, it is assumed that their economies will rebound in 2015.

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/WOO_2014.pdf